What a clear round is actually worth

We modelled four seasons of results against sale prices. The relationship is stronger — and stranger — than expected.

Consistency beats brilliance. Across four seasons of modelled results, clear-round percentage predicts realised sale price better than any single career highlight.

The premium for a top placing decays within about eleven months. The premium for reliability does not decay at all.

For sellers the implication is uncomfortable: campaigning hard for one result is often worse value than campaigning steadily for a year.